Brief
This report covers the 44th week of the year spanning Friday, October 27th, through Friday, November 3rd, 2023. The week in numbers provides key statistics and data, economic reports, market performance and fun science stats for the week.
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Highlights
- The FED leaves rates unchanged this month at 5.25-5.50%
- The National Debt has increased 2.21 Trillion since the National Debt ceiling was suspended on June 1st, 2023
- Solana (SOL) remains the best performing major crypto YTD up 297.9%
- 30 Year average mortgage rates hit new highs not seen seen since December 2000 at 7.79% this week
US Stock Market summary
The US stock market had it’s best week in 2023 with stocks rising an average of 6.03% according to the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. The last time stocks had a gain over 6% in a week was back in June 2022. All sectors gained this week with the Real Estate sector gaining the most rising 8.55% followed by Financials gaining 7.35%.
Stocks rose amid shifting expectations that the Fed could be done raising rates. Although, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was vague about future actions of the FOMC. He stated they are now making decisions one month at a time, reviewing the decision driving data as it comes out but restated they will remain vigilant in fighting inflation until it’s back under the target of 2%. Jerome refused comment on changes in the sentiment of the FOMC members likelihood of favoring another rate hike.
In reviewing the economic reports this week the market is being favorable to reports that might suggest inflation is cooling even if its bad economically. The market rallied this week at these bad economic reports:
- higher than expected Initial Jobless Claims
- growing Continuing Claims which are the highest they have been since April
- lower than expected increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by 25,000
- the Unemployment Rate increasing to 3.9% while expected to remain at 3.8%
The market also rallied on good economic reports this week. Unit Labor Costs decreased 0.8% when the market was expecting an increase of 1.5% while there was a strong increase in productivity of 4.7%, beating the expectation of 3.6%. However, the UAW strike mike be a reasonable impact on these preliminary reports. Once the UAW strike is settled, if worker total compensation is increase by the 30-40% per UAW demands these reports could strongly reverse.
Summary of Global Stocks, Commodities, and Cryptos
Global Stocks were also all up this week but not as much as US Stocks. As the market seems to think Fed rate hikes are over the US dollar lost value across the board this week. The Treasury yield curve also reversed course this week, after months of flattening the inverted yield curve became strong with longer terms rates decreasing much more than shorter term rates. The 30yr is now paying 70 basis points less than the 1yr, last week this difference was only 39 basis points.
With the decline of the dollar last week oil prices decreased $5.03 or -5.88% to 80.51. Meanwhile Natural Gas prices jumped $0.63 or 19.94% to $3.79 as the US and Europe experienced a colder than normal first week of November increasing winter demand more than expected.
Cryptos had another great week gaining 3.06% in total market cap, this is the 3rd consecutive week cryptos have gained, now up 23% in this 3 week rally. Solana (SOL) gained the most last week surging 24.76% rising to a 297% YTD. Meanwhile Bitcoin (BTC) posted a modest gain of $820.01 or 2.42% to close the week at $34,730.03 up 109.88% YTD.
Economic Reports
Monday, October 30th
- No notable economic reports
Tuesday, October 31st
- Employment Cost Index for Q3 increased 1.1%, slightly more than the expected increase of 1.0% and more than last quarter’s increase of 1.0%
- Consumer Confidence for October was 102.6, more than the expected 100.0 but less than last month’s 104.3
Wednesday, November 1st
- ADP Employment Change for October increased 113K, more than the expected increase of 100K and more than last month’s increase of 89K
- ISM Manufacturing Index for October was 46.7%, less than the expected 49.0% and less than last month’s 49.0%
- JOLTS – Job Openings for September was 9.553M, more than last month’s 9.497M
- FOMC Rate Decision – The Fed Reserve decided to leave rates unchanged this month keeping the target rate between 5.25-5.50%
Thursday, November 2nd
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week increased by 5,000 to 217,000 new claims, slightly higher than the expected 214,000
- Continuing Jobless Claims increased by 35,000 to 1.82 million
- Productivity-Preliminary for Q3 increased 4.7%, more than the expected increase of 3.6% and more than last quarter’s increase of 3.6%
- Unit Labor Costs-Preliminary for Q3 decreased 0.8%, less than the expected increase of 1.5% and less than last quarter’s increase of 3.2%
- Factory Orders for September increased 2.8%, more than the expected increase of 1.0% and more than last month’s increase of 1.0%
Friday, November 3rd
- Nonfarm Payrolls for October increased 150K, less than the expected increase of 175K and less than last month’s increase of 297K
- Nonfarm Private Payrolls for October increased 99K, less than the expected increase of 143K and less than last month’s increase of 246K
- Avg. Hourly Earnings for October increased 0.2%, less than the expected increase of 0.3% and less than last month’s increase of 0.3%
- Unemployment Rate for October was 3.9%, more than the expected 3.8% and more than last month’s 3.8%
- Average Workweek for October was 34.3, less than the expected 34.3 and less than last month’s 34.4
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for October was 51.8%, less than the expected 53.0% and less than last month’s 53.6%
Next Week’s Major Reports
- Consumer Credit – Tuesday, November 7th
- Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary – Friday, November 10th
See more Economic News at Briefing.com or learn about each economic report in our knowledge hub.
US Stocks
| Index | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 34,061.32 | 1,643.73 | 5.07% | 32,537.54 | 34,163.63 | 2.76% | ||
| Nasdaq | 13,478.28 | 835.27 | 6.61% | 12,691.56 | 13,520.28 | 28.78% | ||
| S&P 500 | 4,358.34 | 240.97 | 5.85% | 4,132.94 | 4,373.62 | 13.51% | ||
| Wilshire 5000 | 42,921.18 | 2,442.12 | 6.03% | 40,940.12 | 42,921.18 | 12.73% |
| Index | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Services | 226.89 | 13.92 | 6.54% | 217.36 | 226.89 | 42.37% | ||
| Consumer Discretionary | 1,268.86 | 85.29 | 7.21% | 1,198.53 | 1,268.86 | 26.19% | ||
| Consumer Staples | 726.66 | 22.86 | 3.25% | 714.73 | 726.66 | -6.73% | ||
| Energy | 663.24 | 14.66 | 2.26% | 649.85 | 670.03 | -1.35% | ||
| Financials | 561.39 | 38.46 | 7.35% | 531.85 | 561.39 | -1.47% | ||
| Health Care | 1,484.19 | 49.92 | 3.48% | 1,442.11 | 1,484.19 | -6.39% | ||
| Industrials | 858.95 | 43.15 | 5.29% | 825.79 | 858.95 | 3.31% | ||
| Information Technology | 3,048.66 | 195.18 | 6.84% | 2,887.42 | 3,048.66 | 40.35% | ||
| Materials | 495.87 | 24.04 | 5.10% | 476.48 | 495.87 | 1.29% | ||
| Real Estate | 220.12 | 17.33 | 8.55% | 203.41 | 220.12 | -5.27% | ||
| Utilities | 313.83 | 15.56 | 5.22% | 300.29 | 313.83 | -12.46% |
Global Stocks
| Index | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK FTSE 100 | 7,417.73 | 126.45 | 1.73% | 7,291.28 | 7,482.73 | -0.46% | ||
| France CAC 40 | 7,047.50 | 252.12 | 3.71% | 6,809.84 | 7,097.39 | 8.86% | ||
| Spain IBEX 35 | 9,293.90 | 375.60 | 4.21% | 8,945.90 | 9,339.80 | 12.94% | ||
| Germany DAX 40 | 15,189.25 | 501.84 | 3.42% | 14,678.73 | 15,269.50 | 9.09% | ||
| India BSE Sensex | 64,363.78 | 580.98 | 0.91% | 63,431.45 | 64,535.19 | 5.79% | ||
| China Shanghai Comp | 3,030.80 | 13.02 | 0.43% | 3,002.35 | 3,040.98 | -1.89% | ||
| HK Hang Seng 50 | 17,664.12 | 265.39 | 1.53% | 16,979.26 | 17,729.43 | -10.70% | ||
| Japan Nikkei 225 | 31,949.89 | 958.20 | 3.09% | 30,538.29 | 32,087.13 | 22.44% | ||
| Australia ASX 200 | 6,978.20 | 151.30 | 2.22% | 6,751.30 | 6,989.40 | -0.86% |
Currencies
| Currency | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD Canadian Dollar | 1.3658 | -0.0216 | -1.56% | 1.3652 | 1.3901 | 0.77% | ||
| MXN Mexican Peso | 17.4690 | -0.6451 | -3.56% | 17.2835 | 18.1369 | -10.36% | ||
| COP Colombian Peso | 3,984.38 | -124.12 | -3.02% | 3,953.15 | 4,145.70 | -17.83% | ||
| BRL Brazilian Real | 4.9013 | -0.1145 | -2.28% | 4.8757 | 5.0707 | -7.26% | ||
| GBP British Pound Sterling | 0.8078 | -0.0172 | -2.08% | 0.8070 | 0.8272 | -2.27% | ||
| EUR Euro | 0.9319 | -0.0148 | -1.56% | 0.9304 | 0.9508 | -0.27% | ||
| CHF Swiss Franc | 0.8990 | -0.0035 | -0.39% | 0.8966 | 0.9248 | -2.82% | ||
| CZK Czech Koruna | 22.7438 | -0.5812 | -2.49% | 22.6952 | 23.4518 | 0.78% | ||
| NOK Norwegian Krone | 11.0805 | -0.0833 | -0.75% | 11.0220 | 11.2494 | 12.96% | ||
| SEK Swedish Krona | 10.8892 | -0.2586 | -2.32% | 10.8698 | 11.2502 | 4.33% | ||
| RUB Russian Ruble | 92.85 | -1.35 | -1.43% | 91.47 | 94.29 | 25.90% | ||
| SAR Saudi Riyal | 3.7518 | 0.0004 | 0.01% | 3.7488 | 3.7532 | -0.17% | ||
| AED UAE Dirham | 3.6730 | -0.0001 | 0.00% | 3.6727 | 3.6732 | 0.01% | ||
| INR Indian Rupee | 83.17 | -0.24 | -0.29% | 83.06 | 83.42 | 0.51% | ||
| THB Thai Baht | 35.45 | -0.68 | -1.88% | 35.40 | 36.34 | 2.40% | ||
| SGD Singapore Dollar | 1.3547 | -0.0145 | -1.06% | 1.3515 | 1.3723 | 1.03% | ||
| MYR Malaysian Ringgit | 4.7295 | -0.0490 | -1.03% | 4.7290 | 4.7800 | 7.37% | ||
| CNH Chinese Yuan | 7.2884 | -0.0443 | -0.60% | 7.2861 | 7.3442 | 5.30% | ||
| HKD Hong Kong Dollar | 7.8245 | 0.0026 | 0.03% | 7.8201 | 7.8275 | 0.23% | ||
| KRW South Korean Won | 1,309.70 | -46.57 | -3.43% | 1,304.71 | 1,359.38 | 3.78% | ||
| JPY Japanese Yen | 149.39 | -0.27 | -0.18% | 148.81 | 151.72 | 13.93% | ||
| AUD Australian Dollar | 1.5354 | -0.0436 | -2.76% | 1.5340 | 1.5838 | 4.79% | ||
| NZD New Zealand Dollar | 1.6714 | -0.0501 | -2.91% | 1.6658 | 1.7277 | 6.13% |
* Rates are quoted as the amount of local currency to buy 1 US Dollar.
Commodities
- Average US Regular Gas Price – decreased 6.0 cents or -1.70% this week to $3.473 a gallon. See more about US Regular Gas Prices.
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories – increased by 0.77M barrels last week compared to prior week increase of 1.37M
- EIA Natural Gas Inventories – increased 79 bcf last week compared to prior week increase of 74 bcf (billion cubic feet)
| Commodity | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 1,999.20 | 0.70 | 0.04% | 1,978.20 | 2,017.70 | 9.47% | ||
| Silver | 23.29 | 0.40 | 1.74% | 22.65 | 23.75 | -3.14% | ||
| Platinum | 944.30 | 38.50 | 4.25% | 907.00 | 951.80 | -12.80% | ||
| Palladium | 1,128.30 | -1.90 | -0.17% | 1,109.00 | 1,168.00 | -37.25% |
| Commodity | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 80.51 | -5.03 | -5.88% | 80.10 | 85.30 | 0.31% | ||
| Natural Gas | 3.7950 | 0.6310 | 19.94% | 3.5580 | 3.8650 | -7.53% | ||
| Gasoline | 2.2010 | -0.0942 | -4.10% | 2.1822 | 2.2980 | -11.19% |
| Commodity | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumber | 509.00 | 17.50 | 3.56% | 487.00 | 510.00 | 36.21% | ||
| Steel (HRC) | 873.00 | 7.00 | 0.81% | 864.00 | 886.00 | 17.34% | ||
| Copper | 3.6815 | 0.0355 | 0.97% | 3.6315 | 3.7100 | -3.39% |
| Commodity | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 4.7725 | -0.0350 | -0.73% | 4.6800 | 4.8425 | -29.66% | ||
| Wheat | 5.7250 | -0.0300 | -0.52% | 5.5450 | 5.7700 | -27.71% | ||
| Soybeans | 13.5175 | 0.3225 | 2.44% | 13.0000 | 13.5500 | -11.30% | ||
| Coffee | 1.7090 | 0.0995 | 6.18% | 1.5860 | 1.7135 | 2.15% | ||
| Sugar | 0.2777 | 0.0043 | 1.57% | 0.2665 | 0.2783 | 38.57% | ||
| Cocoa | 3,898.00 | 46.00 | 1.19% | 3,781.00 | 3,906.00 | 49.92% | ||
| Cotton | 0.7962 | -0.0476 | -5.64% | 0.7920 | 0.8525 | -4.50% |
| Commodity | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cattle | 1.8388 | 0.0165 | 0.91% | 1.8230 | 1.8498 | 16.45% | ||
| Lean Hogs | 0.7175 | 0.0128 | 1.81% | 0.6995 | 0.7363 | -18.19% | ||
| Feeder Cattle | 2.3975 | 0.0405 | 1.72% | 2.3545 | 2.4238 | 30.51% |
Interest Rates
- Federal Funds Effective Rate – has remained the same this week at 5.33% with the target rate rage increasing to 5.25-5.50% since the July 26th, 2023 increase of 25 basis points. See more about the Federal Funds Rate.
- 30 Year Average US Mortgage Rates – decreased this week to 7.76% from 7.79% last week. Learn more about 30 year mortgage rates.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index – decreased by 1.0% this week compared to the prior week decrease of 6.9%
| Maturity | Week Close | Week Change | Low | Week Range | High | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 1 Month | 5.376% | -0.020% | 5.363% | 5.418% | ||
| US 3 Month | 5.404% | -0.058% | 5.398% | 5.499% | ||
| US 1 Year | 5.400% | -0.013% | 0.005% | 5.496% | ||
| US 5 Year | 4.481% | -0.300% | 4.448% | 4.854% | ||
| US 10 Year | 4.519% | -0.322% | 4.481% | 4.940% | ||
| US 30 Year | 4.701% | -0.320% | 4.670% | 5.102% |
Cryptocurrencies
- Total Crypto Market Cap – increased 3.06% or 38.4B this week to 1,295B
| Rank* | Crypto | Week Close | Week Change | Change % | Low | Week Range | High | YTD Performance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC | 34,730.03 | 820.01 | 2.42% | 33,862.69 | 35,882.72 | 109.88% | ||
| 2 | ETH | 1,841.27 | 57.23 | 3.21% | 1,774.20 | 1,873.37 | 53.85% | ||
| 3 | BNB | 230.93 | 6.44 | 2.87% | 223.27 | 233.55 | -6.26% | ||
| 4 | XRP | 0.6140 | 0.0670 | 12.26% | 0.5421 | 0.6230 | 80.64% | ||
| 5 | SOL | 39.63 | 7.86 | 24.76% | 31.49 | 46.20 | 297.90% | ||
| 6 | ADA | 0.3292 | 0.0397 | 13.72% | 0.2849 | 0.3292 | 33.54% | ||
| 7 | DOGE | 0.0682 | 0.0004 | 0.57% | 0.0661 | 0.0707 | -2.92% | ||
| 8 | TRX | 0.0974 | 0.0035 | 3.77% | 0.0937 | 0.1010 | 78.70% | ||
| 9 | MATIC | 0.6732 | 0.0633 | 10.38% | 0.6104 | 0.6868 | -11.25% | ||
| 10 | LTC | 69.57 | 2.41 | 3.59% | 66.84 | 70.74 | -0.61% |
* Rank is based on market cap of non-stablecoins.
Fascinating Stats
US National Debt
The US National Debt decreased 35.4 billion (Wednesday, October 25th to Wednesday, November 1st), to a total debt of $33,637,961,474,736.64 according to the Treasury Department. The National Debt Ceiling of 31.381 trillion has been suspended as of June 1st, 2023 until January 1st, 2025. See the Debt to the Penny.
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867.8
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276.3
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305.6
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253.2
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532.2
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-61.6
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| Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Space Weather – Solar Sunspots
The number of solar Sunspots (magnetic storms on the surface of the sun facing Earth) has increased this week to 113 from 57 last week, the sun has had 0 spotless days in 2023. We are about 2 years into a 5 year solar cycle known as Solar Maximum where sunspots are in constant very high numbers. See more about Sunspots and space weather.
Exoplanet Discoveries
NASA has cataloged 0 new exoplanets this week, the total has remained at 5,535 confirmed and catalogued Exoplanets across 4,258 confirmed Planetary Systems. 294 Exoplanets have been confirmed this year so far and there are 10,009 Exoplanet Candidates being evaluated for confirmation. Learn about all of the Exoplanets from NASA’s Exoplanet Catalog.